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HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN IN LAST QUARTER

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BY PHEPHILE MOTAU-- TIMES OF SWAZILAND-02-Sep-2015

MBABANE – The country’s seasonal rainfall outlook for 2015/2016 shows a generally increased chance of Above Normal to Normal, Normal to Above and Normal to Below-Normal Rainfall over the four regions of the country during the October-November-December (O

In a statement from Duduzile Masina, Director of the Swaziland Meteorological Services, it was said the January, February and March (JFM) 2016 period was likely to have the western part of the country receiving Below-Normal rainfall and only the eastern part of the country receiving normal with a bias to Above Normal and Above-to-Normal rainfall respectively.
She said using statistical, other climate prediction schemes and interpretation, the climate scientists determined likelihoods of above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall for each of the four regions of Swaziland for overlapping three-monthly periods that is October-November-December (OND), November-December-January (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and January February-March (JFM).
“Above-normal rainfall is defined as lying within the wettest third of recorded (30 year, that is, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 mean) rainfall amounts; below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centered on the climatological median.”
“It has been taken into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence our climate over the SADC region. In particular a strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is favoured during the bulk of the rainfall season,” she said.


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